Is it time to panic about the Dallas Stars? The play of top players raises questions

Publish date: 2024-05-10

How long is long enough?

That’s a question everybody invested in a team — management, coaches, players, fans, media, etc. — grapples with. The answers often vary, and what can be done about it definitely varies.

The Dallas Stars started this season with an 11-3-1 record, reminiscent of — actually better than — their great start to last season. It was the best start to a season for Pete DeBoer in his 16 years as a head coach. The Stars picked up right where they left off, looking like one of the four best teams in the NHL.

Since then, the Stars have played 10 games and lost six. They are 4-4-2 in that stretch, which began on Nov. 18 with a home collapse against the Colorado Avalanche.

Is it time to panic?

As we unravel that question, let’s carry on with some context. Of the Stars’ last 10 games, seven have come against teams currently in a playoff spot. The Stars went 3-3-1 in those games. During the recent stretch, the Stars have had five games at home and five on the road. The Stars went 2-2-1 at home and 2-2-1 on the road. At the end of these 10 games, the Stars played four games in six days, including a home-and-home against the Tampa Bay Lightning and a road back-to-back, which they capped off with a thrilling 5-4 shootout win Thursday night.

The past three weeks, many areas of the Stars’ game have been mediocre. Over the course of an 82-game schedule, these stretches are bound to happen. At the 24-game mark last season, the Stars had lost five out of eight games. In a stretch from early January to late February last season, Dallas lost 13 of 20 games, including losing streaks of two, three and five games. They finished their season in Game 6 of the conference finals.

After their next two games, at home against the Vegas Golden Knights and the Detroit Red Wings, the Stars play 11 of 15 games against teams currently outside of the playoff picture, including four combined games against the two teams currently in last place of each conference. The team’s position in the standings will have a decent chance to recover, which is why it is too early to hit the panic button on the basis of team results.

It gets murkier when it comes to some of the individual players. This isn’t about middle-to-depth players; it’s not about Evgenii Dadonov or Ty Dellandrea eating healthy scratches, nor is it about the dwindling play, at different times, of players like Jani Hakanpää or Ryan Suter. This isn’t even about the healthy scratch saga of Nils Lundkvist.

This nuanced conversation begins with the 2017 draft class, one that’s earned the right to only be spoken of glowingly to this point. But the fact is, Miro Heiskanen, Jake Oettinger and Jason Robertson need to be better. The struggling play of these individuals isn’t completely pinned on them, nor is it questioning their status as franchise cornerstones. In fact, it’s precisely that earned status that brings the brighter spotlight.

Heiskanen is the best player on the Stars but his play hasn’t lived up to those lofty standards. There are fair explanations to pontificate on, such as the load he’s carrying on his pairing or the fact that he’s playing on his off side, but these are things Heiskanen has done consistently in the past and garnered better results. The high-minutes discussion is probably the most legitimate excuse because as much as the Stars want to play him and as much as he embraces it, Heiskanen has often looked gassed. The team has a plan to correct this, and it needs to be implemented soon.

Oettinger got off to a great start but his numbers have fizzled as of late. Again, the play in front of him has a good chunk of the responsibility for this and must improve, but Oettinger can be better as well. Same goes for Robertson, who is skating atop the team in various statistical categories, but the shift-to-shift element of his game can stand to be better.

All of these players have demonstrated large sample sizes of being able to play at a high level. Much like with team performances, players go through ebbs and flows of a season, too. In neither case right now is it time to hit the panic button. Looking at standings before the turn of the calendar is largely a useless exercise. It’s just as irrelevant now after a 4-4-2 stretch as it was after the 11-4-1 start.

Where the eyes should be going to right now is the individual players. This doesn’t absolve anybody on the roster, but as is the case with most things, it starts at the top. The Stars need their best players to be their best players. There’s no reason to doubt that they can, and will, but they haven’t been consistently as of late. The wait for it to come to fruition is where things get antsy.

Here’s a look at the Stars’ week:

Dec. 2: Stars beat the Tampa Bay Lightning, 8-1.
Dec. 4: Stars lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-0.
Dec. 6: Stars lost to Florida Panthers, 5-4.
Dec. 7: Stars beat the Washington Captials, 5-4 in a shootout.

Scoring plays

Dadonov’s hard work

After he was a healthy scratch for the two Tampa Bay games this week, Dadonov returned to the lineup against his old team. Late against the Panthers, he scored a critical goal to even things up after the Stars entered the third period with a multi-goal deficit.

The set up in front of the net was great, as was the pass by Hakanpää, but the entire sequence of Dadonov’s work along the boards and reading the space on the ice was most impressive. It should bode well for his chances to stay in the lineup.

Thomas Harley on the power play

Late in the third period against the Panthers, Thomas Harley launched a shot from distance that squeezed through Sergei Bobrovsky.

Harley won’t always score a goal on that shot, but that’s not the objective for that position. The main purpose is to get the shot through traffic and create chaos to allow the Stars’ strong net-front presence to clean things up.

Seeing more of Harley on the power play should be high on the Stars’ list of personnel considerations. It’s something he appears ready for and could be a key to unlock other things for the organization. More on that soon.

Elite setups

There were a lot of fantastic setups on goals for the Stars in their four games this past week so it’s hard to narrow it down. We’ll cheat and go with two plays here, both from Thursday night against the Captials.

The first one is a fantastic find by Sam Steel, who somehow not only knew exactly where Tyler Seguin was going to be on this play for the one-timer finish but then also delivered a perfect pass.

Later in the game, Matt Duchene, playing in his 1,000th game, just continued his torrid start in Dallas. Fittingly, the goal was scored by Mason Marchment, who is also on a sizzling hot streak with his goal-scoring.

Non-scoring plays

Pretty passing

Monday was obviously a tough night for the Stars’ offense, as they got shut out by Andrei Vasilevskiy for the 852nd time (the math here is unofficial). But the offense was completely invisible, as this passing sequence in the first period nearly tied things up early.

Timely save

The Stars got off to a fast start on Saturday, building a 3-0 lead in the first half of the first period. They did similar things the previous two weekends against Calgary and Colorado, blowing early multi-lead goals in both games and losing by multiple goals.

That’s why it was so important that right after they went up 3-0 and the Lightning had a breakaway, Oettinger got big and made the stop.

There’s no such thing as a first-period dagger, but that’s when it felt like this game could be different than the previous two iterations, which it was.

Suter’s Vezina moment

This isn’t the first time you’ve read this subhead about Suter, but the veteran defenseman made a crucial heads-up play late in the game against the Panthers as the Stars were trying to rally. After the puck went high on Oettinger, it looked like it would trickle into the Stars’ net. Suter prevented the game ending in that moment.

Highlight: Touchdown and two-point conversion

The middle of the week left a bad taste and made it easy to forget that it was just six days ago that the Stars put up eight goals on the Lightning and only allowed one score. The game was a clinic in so many ways, but one that stood out in particular was the fast and furious nature of the goals the Stars scored.

In the first period, Tyler Seguin scored the first goal 61 seconds into the game. After that, Robertson and Jamie Benn each scored a goal 1:11 of game time apart. It was a pattern that carried over the rest of the game. In the second period, Joe Pavelski and Mason Marchment scored goals 1:58 apart and, in the third period, Harley and Sam Steel scored 59 seconds apart.

Obviously, this was an exceptional game that can’t be replicated consistently. But there are three general themes of the performance are important for the Stars to regularly implement.

First, as with the Seguin goal, the Stars have to jump out early on the scoreboard. They had a good start against the Panthers on Wednesday but gave up the first goal and had to chase. They need to start fast and get the payoff.

Second, the first shift after a goal is scored is crucial. It’s important to either diffuse the momentum right after the other team scores or carry it over with a strong shift if the Stars score. That doesn’t mean always scoring, but just applying the pressure.

Finally, as the Harley and Steel goals showed, the Stars need to finish strong and keep their foot on the gas. A strong start, middle and end, as well as making plays in key moments, was far more impressive than the scoreboard.

Lowlight: Blue-line vibes

Aside from Harley, the discourse around the Stars’ defensemen has been woeful. Lundkvist’s scratches made for the top headline, but Suter had a tough outing in Tampa and Heiskanen hasn’t been his usual self. Joel Hanley, who is playing his role perfectly, has been a bit over-exposed. You don’t expect Esa Lindell or Hakanpää to be the shining stars but their deficiencies catch more heat when little else is going right.

In the big picture, though, the situation falls in line with the aforementioned theme of this piece. There’s no need to panic because this group is good enough to get the Stars where they need to go for the regular-season portion of their goals. But it’s also a reminder that not much has happened to change the feeling about this group. Limited cap space and all, the Stars will still need to consider exploring external sources of help for upgrades, barring some significant internal upgrades. It’s a tough balance because they’re reluctant to part ways with their top assets, and understandably so, but the issues on the back end can’t just be ignored, either.

(Photo: Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)

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